NHL — Model Record
Every call the model made, graded against what actually happened — and against the simplest rule that would have made the same call for free.
NHL publishes a score projection for every game, plus moneyline and puck-line picks. No totals picks publish: the model's totals probabilities did not hold up on the holdout. Everything is built on ESPN's projected starting goalies and labelled until both are confirmed.
157 games projected · 2026-10-15 to 2026-11-10 · the records below cover the 68–69 of them with a pre-game price
Read each number next to the one under it. A percentage on its own says nothing — what matters is whether the model beat the trivial rule it was competing with, and on most of these markets it has not. We publish it either way.
Moneyline
36-33
52.2% · 69 games
Backing the market favourite every game: 43-26 (62.3%).
Ours is 10.1 points worse.
Puck line
45-24
65.2% · 69 games
Taking the underdog every game: 43-26 (62.3%).
Ours is 2.9 points better.
Total
34-34-1
50.0% · 68 games
Taking the over every game: 37-31 (54.4%).
Ours is 4.4 points worse.
Accuracy
1.96goals
average error · 69 games
The market's number was off by 1.84 over the same games.
Ours is 6% wider.
Puck line — split by which side it took
When it took the underdog
43-24 (64.2%)
67 calls
When it took the favourite
2-0 (100.0%)
2 calls
Total — split by which side it took
When it took the over
20-17 (54.1%)
37 calls
When it took the under
14-17 (45.2%)
31 calls
157 games is a small sample. These percentages will move a lot.
The moneyline, puck line and total each need a pre-game price, so each covers a slightly different set of games — the count under each is its own.
The last 12 games
What we projected, what happened, and which calls it got right.
| Date | Game | Projected | Actual | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | Nashville Predators @ Los Angeles Kings | 2.6-2.8 | 3-0 | Los Angeles Kings ML (−140) ✗Nashville Predators +1.5 (−210) ✓Under 6 (+100) ✓ |
| 2026-11-10 | Detroit Red Wings @ St. Louis Blues | 3.4-3.5 | 2-3 | St. Louis Blues ML (−141) ✓Detroit Red Wings +1.5 (−205) ✓Over 6 (−102) ✗ |
| 2026-11-10 | Florida Panthers @ Columbus Blue Jackets | 2.5-2.9 | 4-1 | Columbus Blue Jackets ML (−104) ✗Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5 (−250) ✗Under 6 (−117) ✓ |
| 2026-11-10 | New Jersey Devils @ Winnipeg Jets | 3.0-3.8 | 2-4 | Winnipeg Jets ML (+125) ✓Winnipeg Jets +1.5 (−196) ✓Over 6.5 (+102) ✗ |
| 2026-11-10 | Washington Capitals @ Ottawa Senators | 3.5-2.7 | 3-2 | Washington Capitals ML (+103) ✓Washington Capitals +1.5 (−265) ✓Under 6.5 (−124) ✓ |
| 2026-11-10 | Minnesota Wild @ Montreal Canadiens | 3.2-3.3 | 2-1 | Montreal Canadiens ML (+103) ✗Montreal Canadiens +1.5 (−250) ✓Over 6 (−122) ✗ |
| 2026-11-10 | Colorado Avalanche @ Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.2-3.0 | 6-3 | Colorado Avalanche ML (−162) ✓Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 (−176) ✗Under 6.5 (−104) ✗ |
| 2026-11-09 | New York Islanders @ San Jose Sharks | 3.3-2.9 | 2-3 | New York Islanders ML (−140) ✗San Jose Sharks +1.5 (−200) ✓Under 6.5 (−120) ✓ |
| 2026-11-09 | Philadelphia Flyers @ Vancouver Canucks | 3.4-2.4 | 3-1 | Philadelphia Flyers ML (−135) ✓Vancouver Canucks +1.5 (−215) ✗Under 6.5 (−125) ✓ |
| 2026-11-08 | Pittsburgh Penguins @ Anaheim Ducks | 3.2-3.0 | 2-5 | Pittsburgh Penguins ML (−102) ✗Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (−225) ✗Under 7 (−125) push |
| 2026-11-07 | Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers | 3.0-3.7 | 2-4 | Edmonton Oilers ML (−360) ✓Vancouver Canucks +1.5 (+118) ✗Under 7 (−120) ✓ |
| 2026-11-05 | Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers | 3.2-2.7 | 5-4 | Anaheim Ducks ML (+160) ✓Anaheim Ducks +1.5 (−159) ✓Under 7 (−134) ✗ |
Graded NHL picks
Every NHL pick that was published to readers before its game and has been graded, won-lost-push, season by season — each season is a different model, so they are never added together. Counted separately from the projections record.
- 2026-27 68-95 (2026-10-13 to 2026-11-10)Moneyline 62-88Puck line 6-7
- 2025-26 72-70-2 (2026-02-25 to 2026-06-14)Moneyline 26-26Puck line 10-10Total 36-34-2
Most recent
Minnesota Wild @ Montreal Canadiens
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Jesper Wallstedt / Jacob Fowler.
Montreal Canadiens ML +110 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Montreal Canadiens ahead (3.3–3.2) and gave Montreal Canadiens a 52% chance to win. The price implied 48%. That gap was the value.
Washington Capitals @ Ottawa Senators
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Logan Thompson / Samuel Ersson.
Washington Capitals ML +111 at bet365
Posted 10:50 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Washington Capitals ahead (3.5–2.7) and gave Washington Capitals a 62% chance to win. The price implied 47%. That gap was the value.
Florida Panthers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:30 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Jacob Markstrom / Cam Talbot.
Columbus Blue Jackets ML +106 at Pinnacle
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Columbus Blue Jackets ahead (2.9–2.5) and gave Columbus Blue Jackets a 57% chance to win. The price implied 49%. That gap was the value.
New Jersey Devils @ Winnipeg Jets
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Jake Allen / Nico Daws.
Winnipeg Jets ML +133 at Caesars
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Winnipeg Jets ahead (3.8–3.0) and gave Winnipeg Jets a 62% chance to win. The price implied 43%. That gap was the value.
Colorado Avalanche @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Mackenzie Blackwood / Sergei Bobrovsky.
Toronto Maple Leafs ML +139 at Pinnacle
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Colorado Avalanche ahead (3.2–3.0), but it gave Toronto Maple Leafs a 48% chance to win. The price implied only 42%. That gap was the value.
New York Islanders @ San Jose Sharks
Mon, Nov 9 · 10:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Ilya Sorokin / Yaroslav Askarov.
New York Islanders ML +120 at BetRivers
Posted 1:00 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had New York Islanders ahead (3.3–2.9) and gave New York Islanders a 55% chance to win. The price implied 45%. That gap was the value.
New York Rangers @ Edmonton Oilers
Mon, Nov 9 · 8:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Dylan Garand / Devon Levi.
Edmonton Oilers ML +135 at BetRivers
Posted 1:00 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Edmonton Oilers ahead (3.6–2.9) and gave Edmonton Oilers a 60% chance to win. The price implied 43%. That gap was the value.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Vancouver Canucks
Mon, Nov 9 · 9:30 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Joseph Woll / Leevi Merilainen.
Philadelphia Flyers ML -127 at bet365
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Philadelphia Flyers ahead (3.4–2.4) and gave Philadelphia Flyers a 66% chance to win. The price implied 56%. That gap was the value.
Vegas Golden Knights @ Buffalo Sabres
Sun, Nov 8 · 3:30 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Adin Hill / Colten Ellis.
Vegas Golden Knights ML -105 at BetRivers
Posted 3:10 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Vegas Golden Knights ahead (3.2–2.5) and gave Vegas Golden Knights a 61% chance to win. The price implied 51%. That gap was the value.
Philadelphia Flyers @ Calgary Flames
Sun, Nov 8 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Dan Vladar / Devin Cooley.
Calgary Flames ML +108 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:10 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Calgary Flames ahead (3.7–3.5) and gave Calgary Flames a 53% chance to win. The price implied 48%. That gap was the value.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Anaheim Ducks
Sun, Nov 8 · 8:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Arturs Silovs / Laurent Brossoit.
Pittsburgh Penguins ML +130 at FanDuel
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Pittsburgh Penguins ahead (3.2–3.0) and gave Pittsburgh Penguins a 54% chance to win. The price implied 43%. That gap was the value.
New Jersey Devils @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Sun, Nov 8 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Connor Hellebuyck / Anthony Stolarz.
Toronto Maple Leafs ML +137 at Pinnacle
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had New Jersey Devils ahead (3.0–2.9), but it gave Toronto Maple Leafs a 49% chance to win. The price implied only 42%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Winnipeg Jets
Sun, Nov 8 · 6:00 PM ET · Projected goalies as of 9:00 AM ET: Andrei Vasilevskiy / Stuart Skinner. Not yet confirmed. · Goalie not confirmed at puck drop
Winnipeg Jets ML +145 at FanDuel
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Tampa Bay Lightning ahead (3.1–3.0), but it gave Winnipeg Jets a 49% chance to win. The price implied only 41%. That gap was the value.
Florida Panthers @ Boston Bruins
Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Jacob Markstrom / Jeremy Swayman.
Boston Bruins ML -111 at FanDuel
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Boston Bruins ahead (3.6–3.2) and gave Boston Bruins a 57% chance to win. The price implied 53%. That gap was the value.
Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche
Sat, Nov 7 · 9:00 PM ET · Projected goalies as of 4:40 PM ET: Daniil Tarasov / Mackenzie Blackwood. Not yet confirmed. · Goalie not confirmed at puck drop
Detroit Red Wings ML +195 at Caesars
Posted 4:40 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Colorado Avalanche ahead (3.0–2.5), but it gave Detroit Red Wings a 41% chance to win. The price implied only 34%. That gap was the value.
New York Rangers @ Seattle Kraken
Sat, Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Joonas Korpisalo / Joey Daccord.
Seattle Kraken ML +120 at Pinnacle
Posted 4:40 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Seattle Kraken ahead (3.6–3.2) and gave Seattle Kraken a 56% chance to win. The price implied 45%. That gap was the value.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Los Angeles Kings
Sat, Nov 7 · 9:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Sergei Murashov / Darcy Kuemper.
Los Angeles Kings ML +105 at BetRivers
Posted 2:10 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Los Angeles Kings ahead (3.0–2.7) and gave Los Angeles Kings a 55% chance to win. The price implied 49%. That gap was the value.
Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers
Sat, Nov 7 · 10:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Leevi Merilainen / Devon Levi.
Vancouver Canucks ML +300 at Caesars
Posted 1:20 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Edmonton Oilers ahead (3.7–3.0), but it gave Vancouver Canucks a 39% chance to win. The price implied only 25%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Minnesota Wild
Sat, Nov 7 · 8:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Dennis Hildeby / Calvin Pickard.
Minnesota Wild ML +125 at Pinnacle
Posted 12:40 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Minnesota Wild ahead (3.3–3.2) and gave Minnesota Wild a 52% chance to win. The price implied 44%. That gap was the value.
New Jersey Devils @ New York Islanders
Sat, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Jake Allen / Ilya Sorokin.
New York Islanders ML +128 at Caesars
Posted 12:10 PM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had New York Islanders ahead (4.1–2.5) and gave New York Islanders a 73% chance to win. The price implied 44%. That gap was the value.
Published before the inputs rule
These went out before the every-input rule of 8 October 2026. They stay published, labelled.
Utah Mammoth @ Boston Bruins
Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET
Boston Bruins +1.5 -245 at DraftKings
Posted 5:00 PM ET · graded at this price
Published without goalie inputs — starting goalies were not known.
Why this pick: Our model had Boston Bruins ahead (3.4–3.1) and gave Boston Bruins a 76% chance to cover +1.5. The price implied 71%. That gap was the value.
St. Louis Blues @ Chicago Blackhawks
Tue, Oct 6 · 8:00 PM ET
Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 -250 at DraftKings
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Published without goalie inputs — starting goalies were not known.
Why this pick: Our model had Chicago Blackhawks ahead (3.3–3.0) and gave Chicago Blackhawks a 76% chance to cover +1.5. The price implied 71%. That gap was the value.
Published before the 15 October 2026 per-market rule
These went out in a market that no longer publishes picks, before the rule of 15 October 2026 that closed it. They stay published, labelled, and are not counted in this season's record.
Utah Mammoth @ Edmonton Oilers
Thu, Oct 15 · 9:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Karel Vejmelka / Devon Levi.
Over 6.5 -115 at Pinnacle
Posted 1:20 PM ET · graded at this price
New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils
Thu, Oct 15 · 7:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Dylan Garand / Nico Daws.
Over 6.5 +114 at DraftKings
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Calgary Flames @ Vegas Golden Knights
Thu, Oct 15 · 10:00 PM ET · Confirmed goalies: Dustin Wolf / Carter Hart.
Over 6.5 +115 at FanDuel
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Dallas Stars @ Colorado Avalanche
Wed, Oct 14 · 8:30 PM ET · Projected goalies as of 12:10 PM ET: Casey DeSmith / Scott Wedgewood. Not yet confirmed. · Goalie not confirmed at puck drop
Over 6.5 +116 at ESPN BET
Posted 3:18 PM ET · graded at this price
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