NBA — Model Record
Every call the model made, graded against what actually happened — and against the simplest rule that would have made the same call for free.
NBA publishes a score projection for every regular-season game, from opening night. No NBA picks publish: the model's moneyline, spread and totals probabilities did not hold up on the holdout.
156 games projected · 2026-10-20 to 2026-11-10 · the records below cover the 71–74 of them with a pre-game price
Read each number next to the one under it. A percentage on its own says nothing — what matters is whether the model beat the trivial rule it was competing with, and on most of these markets it has not. We publish it either way.
Moneyline
48-24
66.7% · 72 games
Backing the market favourite every game: 51-21 (70.8%).
Ours is 4.2 points worse.
Against the spread
37-37
50.0% · 74 games
Taking the favourite every game: 40-34 (54.1%).
Ours is 4.1 points worse.
Total
35-36-3
49.3% · 71 games
Taking the under every game: 41-30 (57.7%).
Ours is 8.5 points worse.
Accuracy
15.42points
average error · 74 games
The market's number was off by 14.66 over the same games.
Ours is 5% wider.
Against the spread — split by which side it took
When it took the underdog
28-30 (48.3%)
58 calls
When it took the favourite
9-7 (56.3%)
16 calls
Total — split by which side it took
When it took the over
13-19 (40.6%)
32 calls
When it took the under
22-17 (56.4%)
39 calls
156 games is a small sample. These percentages will move a lot.
The moneyline, spread and total each need a pre-game price, so each covers a slightly different set of games — the count under each is its own.
The last 12 games
What we projected, what happened, and which calls it got right.
| Date | Game | Projected | Actual | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers | 118.3-112.5 | 103-123 | Oklahoma City Thunder ML (−135) ✗Oklahoma City Thunder -2 (−110) ✗Over 224.5 (−105) ✓ |
| 2026-11-10 | Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings | 120.3-112.9 | 107-100 | Orlando Magic ML (−225) ✓Orlando Magic -6 (−115) ✓Over 223 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-11-10 | Miami Heat @ Utah Jazz | 114.8-115.0 | 115-109 | Utah Jazz ML (+270) ✗Utah Jazz +8 (−105) ✓Over 228.5 (−105) ✗ |
| 2026-11-10 | Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns | 111.6-113.7 | 110-133 | Phoenix Suns ML (−165) ✓Los Angeles Clippers +3.5 (−110) ✗Over 224.5 (−110) ✓ |
| 2026-11-10 | Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers | 109.1-110.2 | 123-101 | Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 (−115) ✗Over 217.5 (−110) ✓ |
| 2026-11-10 | Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks | 105.2-119.0 | 85-117 | New York Knicks ML (−1100) ✓Milwaukee Bucks +15.5 (−110) ✗Over 222 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-11-09 | New Orleans Pelicans @ Golden State Warriors | 112.0-120.2 | 87-138 | Golden State Warriors ML (−500) ✓New Orleans Pelicans +11.5 (−108) ✗Over 229.5 (−107) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings | 116.8-114.7 | 114-108 | Miami Heat ML (−500) ✓Sacramento Kings +11.5 (−109) ✓Under 237.5 (−115) ✓ |
| 2026-11-08 | New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Clippers | 113.2-119.9 | 123-139 | Los Angeles Clippers ML (−107) ✓Los Angeles Clippers +0.5 (−107) ✓Over 226.5 (−113) ✓ |
| 2026-11-08 | Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks | 115.1-110.7 | 117-97 | Boston Celtics ML (−700) ✓Milwaukee Bucks +13 (−110) ✗Over 222 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Brooklyn Nets @ Dallas Mavericks | 113.5-113.6 | 93-130 | Dallas Mavericks ML (−310) ✓Brooklyn Nets +8 (−110) ✗Over 223 (−110) push |
| 2026-11-08 | Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 110.0-120.7 | 100-115 | Minnesota Timberwolves ML (−600) ✓Utah Jazz +12 (−110) ✗Over 222.5 (−110) ✗ |
Graded NBA picks
Every NBA pick that was published to readers before its game and has been graded, won-lost-push, season by season — each season is a different model, so they are never added together. Counted separately from the projections record.
- 2025-26 67-64-1 (2026-02-23 to 2026-06-13)Moneyline 18-24Against the spread 14-15Total 35-25-1
Most recent
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Sat, Jun 13 · 8:30 PM ET
Over 216.5 -110
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Wed, Jun 10 · 8:30 PM ET
Over 216.5 -106 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:01 AM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Wed, Jun 10 · 8:30 PM ET
New York Knicks -1.5 -113 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Wed, Jun 10 · 8:30 PM ET
New York Knicks ML -123 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Mon, Jun 8 · 8:30 PM ET
Over 216.5 -105 at BetMGM
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Mon, Jun 8 · 8:30 PM ET
New York Knicks -2 -110 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Mon, Jun 8 · 8:30 PM ET
New York Knicks ML -127 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Fri, Jun 5 · 8:30 PM ET
New York Knicks ML +205 at Pinnacle
Posted 5:01 PM ET · graded at this price
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Fri, Jun 5 · 8:30 PM ET
Over 215 -105 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs
Wed, Jun 3 · 8:30 PM ET
Over 218.5 -106 at BetMGM
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Sat, May 30 · 8:00 PM ET
Over 213 -107 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
Thu, May 28 · 8:30 PM ET
Over 219.5 -108 at Pinnacle
Posted 5:00 PM ET · graded at this price
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Tue, May 26 · 8:30 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs ML +166 at BetMGM
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Mon, May 25 · 8:00 PM ET
Over 217.5 -108 at BetMGM
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Mon, May 25 · 8:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers ML +116 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Mon, May 25 · 8:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers +2 -104 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
Sun, May 24 · 8:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs -1.5 -111 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
Sun, May 24 · 8:00 PM ET
Over 219 -106 at Pinnacle
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs
Sun, May 24 · 8:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs ML -122 at DraftKings
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Sat, May 23 · 8:00 PM ET
Over 213.5 -108 at Caesars
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Published before the 15 October 2026 per-market rule
These went out in a market that no longer publishes picks, before the rule of 15 October 2026 that closed it. They stay published, labelled, and are not counted in this season's record.
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
Sun, Oct 4 · 7:00 PM ET
Under 237.5 -111
Posted 11:00 AM ET · graded at this price
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