EdgeBets March Madness Bracket Predictions
Powered by AI — machine learning model trained on years of college basketball data
Model Accuracy: 48/63 (76.2%)
College basketball, 2026 season (frozen, last settled 2026-04-05): 220-210, 51.2%
Simulations: Monte Carlo
CorrectIncorrectHigh confidence (>75%)Toss-up (45-55%)
Last updated: September 8, 2026 at 1:55 AM
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2026 AI Predicted Champion
Michigan
(1) seed · 13.1% championship probability
Correct prediction
East
Round of 64
1Duke71✓
16Siena65
8Ohio State64
9TCU66✓
5St. John's79✓
12Northern Iowa53
4Kansas68✓
13Cal Baptist60
6Louisville83✓
11South Florida79
3Michigan State92✓
14North Dakota State67
7UCLA75
10Central Florida71✗
2Connecticut82✓
15Furman71
Round of 32
1Duke81✓
9TCU58
5St. John's67
4Kansas65✗
6Louisville69
3Michigan State77✓
10Central Florida57
2Connecticut73✓
Sweet 16
1Duke80✓
4Kansas75
3Michigan State63
2Connecticut67✓
Elite 8
1Duke72
2Connecticut73✓
Midwest
Round of 64
1Michigan101✓
16Howard80
8Georgia77
9Saint Louis102✓
5Texas Tech91✓
12Akron71
4Alabama90✓
13Hofstra70
6Tennessee78✓
11Miami Ohio56
3Virginia82✓
14Wright State73
7Kentucky89
10Santa Clara84✗
2Iowa State108✓
15Tennessee State74
Round of 32
1Michigan95✓
9Saint Louis72
5Texas Tech65
4Alabama90✓
6Tennessee79
3Virginia72✗
10Santa Clara63
2Iowa State82✓
Sweet 16
1Michigan90✓
4Alabama77
3Virginia76
2Iowa State62✗
Elite 8
1Michigan95✓
2Iowa State62
Final Four
2Connecticut71✓
3Illinois62✗
1Arizona73✗
1Michigan91✓
Championship
2Houston✗
2Connecticut72
1Michigan77
South
Elite 8
1Florida59
2Houston71✗
Sweet 16
1Florida77✗
4Nebraska71
6North Carolina65
2Houston55✗
Round of 32
1Florida72✗
9Iowa73
5Vanderbilt72
4Nebraska74✓
6North Carolina55✗
3Illinois76
10Texas A&M57
2Houston88✓
Round of 64
1Florida114✓
16Prairie View A&M55
8Clemson61
9Iowa67✓
5Vanderbilt78✓
12McNeese State68
4Nebraska76✓
13Troy47
6North Carolina78✗
11VCU82
3Illinois105✓
14Penn70
7Saint Mary's50
10Texas A&M63✓
2Houston78✓
15Idaho47
West
Elite 8
1Arizona79✓
2Purdue64
Sweet 16
1Arizona109✓
4Arkansas88
3Gonzaga77
2Purdue79✓
Round of 32
1Arizona78✓
9Utah State66
5Wisconsin88
4Arkansas94✓
6Texas74
3Gonzaga68✗
7Miami FL69
2Purdue79✓
Round of 64
1Arizona92✓
16LIU58
8Villanova76
9Utah State86✓
5Wisconsin82✗
12High Point83
4Arkansas97✓
13Hawaii78
6BYU71✗
11Texas79
3Gonzaga73✓
14Kennesaw State64
7Miami FL80✓
10Missouri66
2Purdue104✓
15Queens71
Round of 64
1Duke71✓
16Siena65
8Ohio State64
9TCU66✓
5St. John's79✓
12Northern Iowa53
4Kansas68✓
13Cal Baptist60
6Louisville83✓
11South Florida79
3Michigan State92✓
14North Dakota State67
7UCLA75
10Central Florida71✗
2Connecticut82✓
15Furman71
Round of 32
1Duke81✓
9TCU58
5St. John's67
4Kansas65✗
6Louisville69
3Michigan State77✓
10Central Florida57
2Connecticut73✓
Sweet 16
1Duke80✓
4Kansas75
3Michigan State63
2Connecticut67✓
Elite 8
1Duke72
2Connecticut73✓
Advancement Probabilities
Probability each team reaches each round, based on Monte Carlo simulation. Click any column to sort.
| SeedSeed | TeamTeam | RegionReg | R32R32 | S16S16 | E8E8 | F4F4 | Title GameCG | ChampionChamp▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michigan | Midwest | 90.6% | 65.9% | 45.9% | 28.1% | 19.2% | 13.1% |
| 1 | Duke | East | 92.4% | 59.2% | 40.8% | 24.6% | 14.8% | 8.0% |
| 1 | Arizona | West | 89.0% | 53.7% | 35.9% | 21.2% | 11.2% | 7.2% |
| 2 | Houston | South | 86.7% | 55.5% | 40.0% | 24.8% | 13.9% | 6.8% |
| 2 | Iowa State | Midwest | 88.1% | 57.1% | 36.2% | 19.8% | 11.2% | 6.3% |
| 2 | Connecticut | East | 87.2% | 59.6% | 37.7% | 21.8% | 11.3% | 5.5% |
| 1 | Florida | South | 91.0% | 51.7% | 30.4% | 17.4% | 10.5% | 5.2% |
| 2 | Purdue | West | 88.2% | 58.2% | 34.5% | 19.0% | 9.1% | 4.9% |
| 3 | Gonzaga | West | 82.8% | 55.4% | 29.3% | 16.8% | 8.0% | 4.4% |
| 3 | Virginia | Midwest | 67.5% | 40.0% | 19.7% | 10.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| 4 | Nebraska | South | 65.8% | 37.7% | 20.5% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| 4 | Arkansas | West | 80.9% | 50.5% | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| 3 | Michigan State | East | 66.0% | 40.0% | 19.9% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| 4 | Alabama | Midwest | 65.4% | 38.4% | 17.1% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| 5 | Vanderbilt | South | 61.0% | 36.1% | 18.3% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| 5 | Texas Tech | Midwest | 58.3% | 30.7% | 13.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| 6 | Tennessee | Midwest | 55.8% | 28.6% | 13.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| 4 | Kansas | East | 63.6% | 37.9% | 18.3% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| 6 | Louisville | East | 58.2% | 33.2% | 15.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 5 | St. John's | East | 60.8% | 32.6% | 15.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| 6 | North Carolina | South | 53.5% | 32.0% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| 7 | Saint Mary's | South | 54.0% | 22.1% | 13.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 5 | Wisconsin | West | 57.3% | 29.7% | 13.7% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| 7 | Miami FL | West | 53.2% | 22.9% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| 9 | Utah State | West | 53.5% | 23.1% | 11.3% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 9 | Saint Louis | Midwest | 52.6% | 21.1% | 10.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| 7 | Kentucky | Midwest | 48.2% | 19.2% | 9.9% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| 10 | Santa Clara | Midwest | 51.8% | 20.6% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 9 | Iowa | South | 53.3% | 27.0% | 11.9% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 10 | Texas A&M | South | 46.0% | 18.6% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 6 | BYU | West | 52.6% | 22.3% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| 7 | UCLA | East | 53.7% | 20.8% | 10.5% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 8 | Villanova | West | 46.5% | 21.3% | 9.9% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 11 | VCU | South | 46.5% | 24.5% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 8 | Ohio State | East | 50.8% | 19.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 3 | Illinois | South | 84.2% | 38.5% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 8 | Georgia | Midwest | 47.4% | 11.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 8 | Clemson | South | 46.7% | 20.3% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 9 | TCU | East | 49.2% | 19.2% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 10 | Central Florida | East | 46.3% | 16.0% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 10 | Missouri | West | 46.8% | 15.6% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 11 | Miami Ohio | Midwest | 44.2% | 18.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 11 | Texas | West | 47.4% | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 12 | Akron | Midwest | 41.7% | 16.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 11 | South Florida | East | 41.8% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 12 | McNeese State | South | 39.0% | 15.8% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 12 | High Point | West | 42.7% | 14.0% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 13 | Hofstra | Midwest | 34.6% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 13 | Cal Baptist | East | 36.4% | 15.3% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 12 | Northern Iowa | East | 39.2% | 14.2% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 14 | North Dakota State | East | 34.0% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Troy | South | 34.2% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Wright State | Midwest | 32.5% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Penn | South | 15.8% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Tennessee State | Midwest | 11.9% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Furman | East | 12.8% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Miami Ohio | Midwest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Howard | Midwest | 9.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Howard | Midwest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Prairie View A&M | South | 9.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Idaho | South | 13.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Prairie View A&M | South | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | LIU | West | 11.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Queens | West | 11.8% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Kennesaw State | West | 17.2% | 5.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Hawaii | West | 19.1% | 5.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Siena | East | 7.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | Texas | West | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
68 teams · Monte Carlo simulation
Upset Watch
Round of 64 matchups where the lower seed has a >35% chance of winning, according to our model.
✓
9-seed Utah State has a 53% chance of beating 8-seed Villanova
✗
10-seed Santa Clara has a 53% chance of beating 7-seed Kentucky
✓
9-seed Iowa has a 53% chance of beating 8-seed Clemson
✓
9-seed Saint Louis has a 52% chance of beating 8-seed Georgia
✓
11-seed VCU has a 49% chance of beating 6-seed North Carolina
✓
9-seed TCU has a 48% chance of beating 8-seed Ohio State
✓
10-seed Texas A&M has a 48% chance of beating 7-seed Saint Mary's
✓
11-seed Texas has a 47% chance of beating 6-seed BYU
✗
10-seed Missouri has a 46% chance of beating 7-seed Miami FL
✗
10-seed Central Florida has a 46% chance of beating 7-seed UCLA
✗
11-seed Miami Ohio has a 44% chance of beating 6-seed Tennessee
✗
11-seed South Florida has a 43% chance of beating 6-seed Louisville
✓
12-seed High Point has a 43% chance of beating 5-seed Wisconsin
✗
12-seed Akron has a 42% chance of beating 5-seed Texas Tech
✗
12-seed McNeese State has a 40% chance of beating 5-seed Vanderbilt
✗
12-seed Northern Iowa has a 40% chance of beating 5-seed St. John's
✗
13-seed Cal Baptist has a 37% chance of beating 4-seed Kansas
✗
13-seed Hofstra has a 35% chance of beating 4-seed Alabama
✗
13-seed Troy has a 35% chance of beating 4-seed Nebraska
Methodology
Our bracket predictions are generated by a machine learning model trained on years of historical college basketball data.
The model evaluates proprietary team strength and efficiency metrics to predict the outcome of every matchup.
Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of complete tournament scenarios to calculate each team's probability of advancing to every round.
700+ sports picks tracked with a verified track record. All predictions published before games start and settled transparently.