College Football — Model Record
Every call the model made, graded against what actually happened — and against the simplest rule that would have made the same call for free.
College football publishes a margin projection for every game with enough market coverage. No College football picks publish: the model's moneyline, spread and totals probabilities did not hold up on its graded predictions.
660 games projected · 2026-08-29 to 2026-11-10
Read each number next to the one under it. A percentage on its own says nothing — what matters is whether the model beat the trivial rule it was competing with, and on most of these markets it has not. We publish it either way.
Moneyline
445-178
71.4% · 623 games
Backing the market favourite every game: 475-148 (76.2%).
Ours is 4.8 points worse.
Against the spread
307-343
47.2% · 660 games
Taking the favourite every game: 332-328 (50.3%).
Ours is 3.1 points worse.
Total
4-4
50.0% · 8 games
Taking the under every game: 5-3 (62.5%).
Fewer than 20 graded games — too few to compare.
Accuracy
Not measurable yet
Projected margins are stored on only 1129 graded games so far — too few to quote an average error against the market. This turns on by itself as the column fills.
Against the spread — split by which side it took
When it took the underdog
156-185 (45.7%)
341 calls
When it took the favourite
151-168 (47.3%)
319 calls
Covers games where enough sportsbooks posted a line for us to publish against — so lopsided non-conference games, which books price thinly, are under-represented.
The last 12 games
What we projected, what happened, and which calls it got right.
| Date | Game | Projected | Actual | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | Ohio @ Miami (OH) | Ohio by 0.6 | Miami (OH) by 17 | Ohio ML (−118) ✗Miami (OH) +1.5 (−112) ✓ |
| 2026-11-10 | Kent State @ Bowling Green | Bowling Green by 11.5 | Bowling Green by 5 | Bowling Green ML (−218) ✓Bowling Green -5.5 (−109) ✗ |
| 2026-11-10 | Western Michigan @ Akron | Western Michigan by 15.7 | Western Michigan by 28 | Western Michigan ML (−650) ✓Western Michigan -14 (−110) ✓ |
| 2026-11-07 | Wyoming @ UNLV | UNLV by 8.8 | Wyoming by 6 | UNLV ML (−185) ✗UNLV -4 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-11-07 | Texas State @ Oregon State | Oregon State by 3.1 | Texas State by 21 | Oregon State ML (−230) ✗Texas State +5.5 (−115) ✓ |
| 2026-11-07 | Fresno State @ Utah State | Fresno State by 3.4 | Utah State by 7 | Fresno State ML (−117) ✗Fresno State -1.5 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-11-07 | Air Force @ Army | Army by 7.0 | Air Force by 3 | Army ML (−181) ✗Army -4 (−112) ✗ |
| 2026-11-07 | Miami @ Notre Dame | Notre Dame by 3.0 | Notre Dame by 7 | Notre Dame ML (−278) ✓Miami +7 (−108) push |
| 2026-11-07 | Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State | Jacksonville State by 21.6 | Jacksonville State by 33 | Jacksonville State ML (−800) ✓Jacksonville State -16.5 (−112) ✓ |
| 2026-11-07 | Boise State @ Colorado State | Boise State by 21.4 | Boise State by 26 | Boise State ML (−950) ✓Boise State -16.5 (−113) ✓ |
| 2026-11-07 | Liberty @ New Mexico State | Liberty by 19.0 | Liberty by 16 | Liberty ML (−800) ✓Liberty -15.5 (−112) ✓ |
| 2026-11-07 | Missouri State @ Florida International | Florida International by 3.4 | Florida International by 3 | Florida International ML (−205) ✓Missouri State +5 (−108) ✓ |