MLB — Model Record
Every call the model made, graded against what actually happened — and against the simplest rule that would have made the same call for free.
1061 games projected · 2026-07-06 to 2026-09-27 · the records below cover the 543–566 of them with a pre-game price
Read each number next to the one under it. A percentage on its own says nothing — what matters is whether the model beat the trivial rule it was competing with, and on most of these markets it has not. We publish it either way.
Moneyline
311-236
56.9% · 547 games
Backing the market favourite every game: 334-213 (61.1%).
Ours is 4.2 points worse.
Run line
315-242
56.6% · 557 games
Taking the underdog every game: 316-241 (56.7%).
Ours is 0.2 points worse.
Total
275-268-23
50.6% · 543 games
Taking the over every game: 282-261 (51.9%).
Ours is 1.3 points worse.
Accuracy
3.47runs
average error · 566 games
The market's number was off by 3.39 over the same games.
Ours is 2% wider.
Run line — split by which side it took
When it took the underdog
291-217 (57.3%)
508 calls
When it took the favourite
24-25 (49.0%)
49 calls
Total — split by which side it took
When it took the over
203-189 (51.8%)
392 calls
When it took the under
72-79 (47.7%)
151 calls
July 2026 onward only. Projections published before July were rewritten in a single pass on 6 July and are not what the site showed at the time; any projection amended once a game had started is excluded. The moneyline, run line and total each need a pre-game price, so each covers a slightly different set of games — the count under each is its own.
Postseason
Counted separately from the record above, which is regular season only. Different opposition, different rosters and a different pitching pattern — averaging them together would misstate both. This sample is small and will stay small: a full postseason is roughly thirty games, so the comparison column stays blank for some years yet. It is shown anyway rather than withheld.
Moneyline
12-9
57.1% · 21 games
Backing the market favourite every game: 12-9 (57.1%).
Ours is the same as the trivial rule.
Run line
13-8
61.9% · 21 games
Taking the underdog every game: 13-8 (61.9%).
Ours is the same as the trivial rule.
Total
9-11-1
45.0% · 20 games
Taking the under every game: 11-9 (55.0%).
Ours is 10.0 points worse.
Accuracy
Not measurable yet
Too few games with both a projection and a closing number to quote an average error yet.
22 games is a small sample. These percentages will move a lot.
July 2026 onward only. Projections published before July were rewritten in a single pass on 6 July and are not what the site showed at the time; any projection amended once a game had started is excluded. The moneyline, run line and total each need a pre-game price, so each covers a slightly different set of games — the count under each is its own.
The last 12 games
What we projected, what happened, and which calls it got right.
| Date | Game | Projected | Actual | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4.4-3.4 | 4-1 | Milwaukee Brewers ML (−132) ✓Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (−150) ✗Over 6 (−115) ✗ |
| 2026-10-27 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4.0-4.0 | 3-4 | Milwaukee Brewers ML (−114) ✗Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (−161) ✓Over 7.5 (+107) ✗ |
| 2026-10-26 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays | 4.3-4.1 | 10-1 | Milwaukee Brewers ML (+102) ✓Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (−220) ✓Over 7 (−110) ✓ |
| 2026-10-24 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers | 4.0-4.3 | 4-5 | Milwaukee Brewers ML (−114) ✓Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (−221) ✓Over 6.5 (−101) ✓ |
| 2026-10-23 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers | 3.3-4.7 | 2-3 | Milwaukee Brewers ML (−182) ✓Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (−147) ✓Over 6.5 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-10-19 | Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay RaysStarter has limited MLB history — model used no season stats for him. | 4.1-4.4 | 3-7 | Tampa Bay Rays ML (−148) ✓Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (−165) ✗Over 7 (+109) ✓ |
| 2026-10-18 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians | 4.2-3.2 | 3-1 | Tampa Bay Rays ML (−135) ✓Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (−155) ✗Over 6.5 (−105) ✗ |
| 2026-10-17 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland GuardiansStarter has limited MLB history — model used no season stats for him. | 4.5-3.8 | 7-3 | Tampa Bay Rays ML (−109) ✓Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (−184) ✗Over 6.5 (−112) ✓ |
| 2026-10-15 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 3.7-5.1 | 6-4 | Los Angeles Dodgers ML (−144) ✗Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (−158) ✓Over 8 (−102) ✓ |
| 2026-10-15 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians | 3.6-3.6 | 2-3 | Cleveland Guardians ML (−130) ✓Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (−190) ✓Over 6.5 (−130) ✗ |
| 2026-10-14 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers | 4.2-5.3 | 6-2 | Los Angeles Dodgers ML (−168) ✗Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (−137) ✓Over 7 (−121) ✓ |
| 2026-10-13 | Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays | 3.8-3.9 | 1-3 | Tampa Bay Rays ML (−129) ✓Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (−179) ✗Over 6.5 (−117) ✗ |
Graded MLB picks
Every MLB pick that was published to readers before its game and has been graded, won-lost-push, season by season — each season is a different model, so they are never added together. Counted separately from the projections record.
- 2026 894-1088-17 (2026-03-26 to 2026-10-28)Moneyline 456-604Run line 246-309Total 192-175-17
Most recent
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays
Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +150 at FanDuel
Posted 3:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Milwaukee Brewers ahead (4.4–3.4) and gave Milwaukee Brewers a 45% chance to cover -1.5. The price implied 40%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
Sat, Oct 24 · 8:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +194 at Pinnacle
Posted 4:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Milwaukee Brewers ahead (4.3–4.0) and gave Milwaukee Brewers a 39% chance to cover -1.5. The price implied 34%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
Fri, Oct 23 · 8:00 PM ET
Over 6.5 -107 at bet365
Posted 4:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers
Fri, Oct 23 · 8:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +153 at FanDuel
Posted 4:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Milwaukee Brewers ahead (4.7–3.3) and gave Milwaukee Brewers a 49% chance to cover -1.5. The price implied 40%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Sun, Oct 18 · 5:08 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays ML -121 at Pinnacle
Posted 1:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Tampa Bay Rays ahead (4.2–3.2) and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 59% chance to win. The price implied 55%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Sat, Oct 17 · 8:08 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +168 at Pinnacle
Posted 4:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Starter has limited MLB history — model used no season stats for him.
Why this pick: Our model had Tampa Bay Rays ahead (4.5–3.8) and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 42% chance to cover -1.5. The price implied 37%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Sat, Oct 17 · 8:08 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays ML -106 at Pinnacle
Posted 4:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Starter has limited MLB history — model used no season stats for him.
Why this pick: Our model had Tampa Bay Rays ahead (4.5–3.8) and gave Tampa Bay Rays a 57% chance to win. The price implied 51%. That gap was the value.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
Sat, Oct 17 · 8:08 PM ET
Over 6.5 -105 at FanDuel
Posted 4:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Starter has limited MLB history — model used no season stats for him.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Thu, Oct 15 · 8:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +144 at Pinnacle
Posted 5:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Los Angeles Dodgers ahead (5.1–3.7) and gave Los Angeles Dodgers a 48% chance to cover -1.5. The price implied 41%. That gap was the value.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Wed, Oct 14 · 8:00 PM ET
Over 7.5 +105 at FanDuel
Posted 5:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tue, Oct 13 · 8:00 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians ML +118 at Pinnacle
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Tampa Bay Rays ahead (3.9–3.8), but it gave Cleveland Guardians a 51% chance to win. The price implied only 46%. That gap was the value.
Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays
Mon, Oct 12 · 8:00 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians ML +150 at Bet99
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Tampa Bay Rays ahead (4.4–3.8), but it gave Cleveland Guardians a 44% chance to win. The price implied only 40%. That gap was the value.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Sat, Oct 10 · 8:00 PM ET
Chicago White Sox ML +127 at Pinnacle
Posted 4:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Chicago White Sox ahead (4.1–3.7) and gave Chicago White Sox a 55% chance to win. The price implied 44%. That gap was the value.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Tue, Oct 6 · 6:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 +175 at FanDuel
Posted 2:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Los Angeles Dodgers ahead (4.2–3.5) and gave Los Angeles Dodgers a 42% chance to cover -1.5. The price implied 36%. That gap was the value.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Tue, Oct 6 · 6:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Dodgers ML -102 at FanDuel
Posted 2:25 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Why this pick: Our model had Los Angeles Dodgers ahead (4.2–3.5) and gave Los Angeles Dodgers a 57% chance to win. The price implied 50%. That gap was the value.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
Tue, Oct 6 · 6:00 PM ET
Over 6.5 +105 at Bet99
Posted 5:00 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Mon, Oct 5 · 5:00 PM ET
Over 6.5 -108 at Pinnacle
Posted 12:16 PM ET · graded at this price
Postseason · Model trained on regular-season games.
Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Sun, Sep 27 · 3:10 PM ET
Minnesota Twins ML +110 at Caesars
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Minnesota Twins ahead (4.6–4.3) and gave Minnesota Twins a 52% chance to win. The price implied 48%. That gap was the value.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Sun, Sep 27 · 3:10 PM ET
San Diego Padres ML +125 at Pinnacle
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Arizona Diamondbacks ahead (4.0–3.8), but it gave San Diego Padres a 49% chance to win. The price implied only 44%. That gap was the value.
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Sun, Sep 27 · 3:07 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds +1.5 -125 at Caesars
Posted 9:00 AM ET · graded at this price
Why this pick: Our model had Toronto Blue Jays ahead (4.7–4.6), but it gave Cincinnati Reds a 63% chance to cover +1.5. The price implied only 56%. That gap was the value.
Other sports