NFL — Model Record
Every call the model made, graded against what actually happened — and against the simplest rule that would have made the same call for free.
NFL publishes a margin projection for every game with enough market coverage. No NFL picks publish yet: each market needs 100 graded games before its probabilities can be checked, and reopens automatically when they hold up.
136 games projected · 2026-09-09 to 2026-11-09
Read each number next to the one under it. A percentage on its own says nothing — what matters is whether the model beat the trivial rule it was competing with, and on most of these markets it has not. We publish it either way.
Moneyline
87-48
64.4% · 136 games
Backing the market favourite every game: 92-44 (67.6%).
Ours is 3.2 points worse.
Against the spread
61-72
45.9% · 136 games
Taking the favourite every game: 67-69 (49.3%).
Ours is 3.4 points worse.
Total
Not published
The football model projects a margin, not a score, so it makes no call on the total. That is a gap in the model, not in this record.
Accuracy
Not measurable yet
Projected margins are stored on only 270 graded games so far — too few to quote an average error against the market. This turns on by itself as the column fills.
Against the spread — split by which side it took
When it took the underdog
44-52 (45.8%)
96 calls
When it took the favourite
17-23 (42.5%)
40 calls
136 games is a small sample. These percentages will move a lot.
Covers games where enough sportsbooks posted a line for us to publish against. Nearly every NFL game clears that bar, so this is close to the full slate.
The last 12 games
What we projected, what happened, and which calls it got right.
| Date | Game | Projected | Actual | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings by 0.6 | Buffalo Bills by 17 | Minnesota Vikings ML (+149) ✗Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (−117) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears by 5.0 | Chicago Bears by 3 | Chicago Bears ML (−272) ✓Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 (−113) ✓ |
| 2026-11-08 | Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks by 10.8 | Seattle Seahawks by 14 | Seattle Seahawks ML (−427) ✓Seattle Seahawks -8.5 (−107) ✓ |
| 2026-11-08 | Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots | New England Patriots by 4.8 | Green Bay Packers by 18 | New England Patriots ML (−174) ✗New England Patriots -3 (−113) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers by 8.7 | San Francisco 49ers by 21 | San Francisco 49ers ML (−475) ✓Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (−108) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers | Houston Texans by 1.7 | Houston Texans by 22 | Houston Texans ML (−242) ✓Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers | Denver Broncos by 2.0 | Denver Broncos by 5 | Denver Broncos ML (−146) ✓Carolina Panthers +2.5 (−101) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders | Los Angeles Rams by 2.4 | Los Angeles Rams by 7 | Los Angeles Rams ML (−235) ✓Washington Commanders +4.5 (−110) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles by 1.1 | New York Giants by 8 | Philadelphia Eagles ML (+135) ✗Philadelphia Eagles +3 (−109) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints | New Orleans Saints by 2.9 | New Orleans Saints by 1 | New Orleans Saints ML (−173) ✓Cleveland Browns +3 (−102) ✓ |
| 2026-11-08 | Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins | Detroit Lions by 3.8 | Detroit Lions by 10 | Detroit Lions ML (−295) ✓Miami Dolphins +6.5 (−111) ✗ |
| 2026-11-08 | New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs by 8.9 | Kansas City Chiefs by 23 | Kansas City Chiefs ML (−512) ✓New York Jets +9.5 (−109) ✗ |
Other sports